A last minute, pre-election EKOS poll in Canada shows that 65.6% of Canadians intend to vote for parties OTHER than the governing Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).
The CPC had been leading a minority government. An election was triggered by the CPC losing a non-confidence vote after the government was found to have been in contempt of Parliament.
Yet the CPC may actually end up winning a majority of all 308 seats with an even smaller share of the vote than they got last time - thanks to the First Past the Post voting system. This is because the two major opposition parties - who together have more than 50% support - may split the anti-CPC vote and allow the CPC to win an outright majority of all seats with as little as 34.5% of the total vote.....less than they got last time. The latest poll shows the usual 3rd-place NDP are running a close second to the CPC and ahead of the Liberal party. In Canadian terms this is a huge shift in voter preference at the federal level. But what hasn't changed is the monster-majority (65%) voter distaste for the Conservatives.....yet FPP has allowed them to win elections due to a split opposition vote.
That could never happen under MMP. In November, I'll be voting to keep MMP.
(Canadians are voting on their May 2nd. So the polls will open in eastern Canada around 11pm NZ time tonight and the last polls will close in the Yokon Territory around 2:30pm tomorrow, NZ time. Canada has seven time time zones.)
General Debate 13 May 2024
1 hour ago
In short, no.
ReplyDeleteI was in Canada just before the election. The average Joe -- sitting in Timmies & A&W (both local food places) and listening is useful -- despise the Tories but did not trust the Grits (Liberals) because they had corruptly and cynically set up an alliance with the Party Quebecois.
And played dirty tricks.
The NDP (which makes the Alliance look like a bunch of economic dries) got in because they were seen as honest.
And the Tories got the prairies, all of Rural Ontario and British Columbia -- at times by big majorities and at times by little. The left/right vote is basically unchanged.
This is basically the same result that led to the Labour landslide of 1984 -- in FPP if you get over 45% of the popular vote things tip. Labour and National, to my knowledge, at the peak of their popularity, get around that. About 20% of the population in both NZ and Canada who vote are not going to vote mainstream -- they will vote Green or a second string party on the right or left.
What this means is that Harper better deliver, or the results will flip. And Harper knows this. MMP removes that element of fear from the mind of the politician.
And fear -- of defeat, of punishment -- is a useful thing in society.