Convergence: The transformation of cell phones

The mobile phone industry seems to be going through a collective intake of breath right now. Very soon, virtually all new phones will be 'smart phones' of one sort or another. The future of phone companies like Motorola are hanging in the balance. They either need to come up with something amazing - or at least competitive - or they won't be around much longer.

Bad enough at any time, but the industry has arrived at this moment in the midst of the worst economic mess since the Great Depression. Only the concerted efforts of the world's central banks is preventing the global financial system from tumbling into ruin as it did in the early 1930s when central banks sat on their hands for two years and let the market decide with disastrous consequences. Now is a tough time in anyone's market, never mind one as competitive and dependent on investment in expensive, fixed capital infrastructure as the mobile phone market.

In New Zealand, the picture is further enhanced (or complicated) by the imminent launch of Telecom New Zealand's own late and long-delayed 3G cellular network. CDMA is almost history.
GSM-based Vodafone have been eating Telecom's lunch for the past several years as Telecom has been unable to offer services like video calling to its users. In order to allow users to take advantage of the functions and services of the new smart phones, Telecom's new network comes not a moment too soon. Fingers crossed for a trouble free launch.

Globally, the next few weeks are probably the last before the mobile world effectively surrenders to handheld convergence. Your phone, your computer, your Internet, your camera - still and video - as well as your music and video collections and contacts and productivity applicatins, will all very soon be accessed via an object that fits easily in the palm of your hand or your shirt pocket.

iPhone users have been leading the way and the iPhone's success has set the benchmark for what is to come. Apple's iPhone has a long lead, but is constrained by Apple's control freak tendencies about the platform and high prices for both the phone and data in many markets. Those expensive places - like New Zealand - are still waiting for the new wave of phones to break on their shores.

My next several blog posts are going to look at the leading known contenders for 3G supremacy and speculate about what elese might be hiding in the pipeline. The new iPhone? The Palm Pre? Blackberry Storm? Maybe the HTC Magic? Something as yet unknown from Nokia, Motorola or perhaps even Sony? Already the list is growing and full of promises of some very cool stuff.

The good news is, there needn't be only one. I'm sure this market is more than big enough for several vendors to carve out solid bases of loyal, happy customers. One things is certain: a year from now the mobile phone / multimedia player / Internet access device / productivity, organiser, games box will be something new and probably VERY cool.