ACT Party leader, Rodney Hides' performance on TVNZ's "Sunday" last evening was informative. He claimed to represent the policies of the "real" National Party and taunted National leader John Key, also present, by describing his party as "to the left of Helen Clark". Most interesting is that he said this publicly, obviously talking over John Key's head to John Key's own voters.
Clearly Hide is signaling hardball....and appears at the same time to be positioning his party to capture more of National's vote....and maybe not in 2011, either. Hide sounds impatient....and would be more impatient if he doesn't get what he wants.
It may be ACT's game plan to have a bust-up at some stage if their policy aims are frustrated, and claim to be the "real" National Party in an election campaign. Grabbing a bigger chunk of the centre-right would certainly give them more leverage in any government....though any such government would be very unlikely. It would have to happen sooner rather than later in order to avoid scaring voters with policies they don't like. Go for the populist stuff first.
It has that feel about it. Maybe it is supposed to....to aid ACT's bargaining position. Roger Douglas has a history of blitzkrieg. Maybe John Key is in for more than he realises.
If there were to be an early election as a consequence of some power play by ACT, that would get around the issue of a referendum on MMP....which ACT has said it would support but would be crazy to actually follow through on (based on what Hide said in that interview).
Key needs as many allies as he can get accross the spectrum. He may find ACT to be something of a poisoned chalice if he drinks too deeply from it. The Maori Party...and even the Greens and Labour should not be afraid to marginalise ACT in policy areas where National wants to do things ACT won't support or National can't stomach ACT's terms.
For the moment, I'm putting ACT's public boorishness down to post-election jockeying for influence.
Key also have to be careful about what he does and who he does it to. many of the new voters he won over on Saturday were most likely loyal Labour voters through 3 elections who had grown tired of Helen Clark. A new Labour leader by itself may not be enough to win many of them back, but worse lower wages and conditions combined with reduced services could do it.
Also be alert for the "Shock Doctrine" approach to the global financial crisis. I am already hearing business leaders attempting to co-opt this event to justify their own pet policy changes.......
Combined, this could all quite easily make this National-lead government a one-termer....and it may not be the whole term at that.
Hide needs to keep in mind that their new government has actually won by a whisker....and it took former Labour voters to do it. They won't make that mistake twice if what they end up getting is ACT.
Quite perceptive observations.
ReplyDeleteLabour has a fresh start. Early on Labour could not win without Clark. In the last few weeks they could not win with her. Her sheer nastiness became the focal point for many voters, overshadowing her very real skills in handling media questions on most topics. Such were those skills that it mattered not a great deal whether she was telling the truth or not, she looked competent. Sadly, for Labour, without the vindictiveness and self-imposed "leg-rope" of the equally nasty Peters, Clark would have been unassailable in the MMP environment for ever. Either her advisors were just as myopic in their hatred of John Key, or they were incapable of convincing her of the folly of jealousy-driven vitriol.
The cleanout of Clark, Cullen,Simpson will give Goff the freshest of starts, and he will draw back the centrist votes that have deserted Labour and the Greens. Labour's hard core will be there no matter what.
Key will have to be very good to survive the next election. Already he sounds like he has stepped up to the next level. He will be a better Prime Minister than he was Leader of the Opposition.
Hide may well be the Achilles Heel that Peters became for Labour.
Anon: Labour did nothing wrong highlighting the gap between what national was saying in private and what it was saying publicly. The H-Fee thing was stupid - whoever was behind that. I don't give a rat's arse what bit of paper Key might have signed under instructions from a senior manager 20 years ago when he was 26 years old......I've been order by past employers to do illegal things or get the sack. I refused, but my life would have been MUCH easier had I not. I won't judge anyone else for ancient sins provided they are ancient.
ReplyDeleteMany voters believed that Labour were manufacturing the difference between National's private and public statements. Clark, by aligning herself with the "entrapment" secret tape recordings, turned a lot of decent Labour voters away. They saw that as underhanded. Hard core Labour voters loved it, but the centre left have some scruples.
ReplyDeleteThese stay-at-home voters will be watching Goff with interest. He has more general appeal, and has every chance of drawing them back with a sensible approach.