The One News / Colmar-Brunton poll today shows the gap between National and Labour to be narrowing. National slipped 3 points to 47% and Labour is also down 1 to 35%. The Greens are up 3 points, on 8%. That's a very high rating for the Greens in a Colmar-Brunton poll.
This is the poll that typically gives National a 6% to 8% bonus over actual election results, so the slip back for National to 47% in a C-B poll leaves one wondering. Allowing for C-B's usual bias to National, is that party now really on something more like 41%? Or have Colmar-Brunton changed the way they do their polling?
Who knows. But I was interested to see Guyon Espiner's reaction to last week's rendering of 50% to National in the previous edition of the C-B poll. He more or less said he didn't believe it and thought the election would be much closer than that.
It struck me at the time that when the TVNZ political analyst fronting the C-B poll discounts it, they (Colmar-Brunton) may have realised the game was up. Espiner didn't say his polling emperor had no clothes, but he came very close.
If C-B didn't alter the way they do their sampling in the past week, then the election IS much closer than it looks.
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