The vast majority of photo / quotes (15 of 20, or 75%) support National, despite a majority - 56.5% - of those who responded to the informal polls not being supporters of that party. Roughly a quarter of the text in the article recounts the views and thoughts of just one person polled: Shane Wairau of Queenstown.
The 600-person informal poll conducted by Collins produced an overall outcome of 43.5% for National, 35% for Labour, 8.% for the Greens, 5% for the Maori Party. This is easily the worst poll result for National in recent months.
The Herald attempts to explain this away by saying: "Collins' one-man poll was biased towards the poor and the young, who are more likely to be in the streets than older, better-off people." Surely that would depend on the street? Could it not also be true that polls of people who are not in the street are also biased?
The opinions voiced leave you scratching your head. A tour driver from Kaitaia will vote National because the company who took over the business he works for reduced their wages as fuel prices rose. What this person expected the National Party to do about that wasn't clear.Perhaps he should ask John Key.
Others cited people leaving New Zealand for higher wages in Australia as a reason to vote for National. "Everything is going up. No one is getting any wage increases", says an Onehunga mechanic. Exactly how he expects the National Party to fight for higher wages for mechanics isn't clear.
Despite falling crime rates over recent years, many polled saw crime as a big issue. Their response is to demand higher sentences, despite all the evidence this changes nothing. The country with some of the highest sentences - the US - also has one of the worst records where crime is concerned.
The Herald has taken these prejudices, preconceptions and misapprehensions and distilled them down into a 'swing to the right' that its own poll doesn't support. That 43.5% is more or less the same share of the vote National has had for most of the past 50 years. A clear majority do not support the right.
What the Herald poll story tells me above all is that the foreign billionaire who owns APN and the Herlad, wants a National-lead government. preferably a one-party government so they can get rid of MMP.
"Swinging to the Right" is more a documentary of the Herald's bias than any polling bias.
(I should say I have a lot of time for Simon Collins, having followed his work over the years and I am mindful of his history in the Parliamentary press gallery in the late 80's and early 90s. This article isn't typical of his work, as far as I can recall. I wonder how much it was edited. )
I am appalled at the ignorance of those quoted,too. But I don't expect them to vote for National on election day. Besides, nobody who reads the Herald is in the market to change their votes from Labour to National, so don't lose any sleep over any effect this poll might have.
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