The TNS Conversa poll released July 7th by the NZIER (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research) indicates a narrw gap between the two major parties with a large proportion of people still undecided.
The voting intentions of those surveyed are wildly different to every other recent poll. The TNS Conversa poll is also the only one I know of that reports the proportion of undecided voters. This poll paints a very different picture to the one driving the current media narrative. Interestingly, I have not seen any media covering this aspect of the survey. Maybe they didn't read it.
National - 30%
Labour - 24%
Greens - 4%
NZ First - 3%
Maori - 3%
ACT - 1%
UF - >1%
Undecided - 27%
Won't vote - 7%
Such a large pool of undecided voters in a race that appears to be close does suggest this election is anyone's. No one should be counting their chickens just yet if this poll is credible. Some say it isn't. The claimed margin of error is 3.1%.
The poll shows that a third of the country responded with a 9 or a 10 (out of 10) and "strongly believe that climate change is happening". The same proportion know of the ETS, though they are not as firmly supportive, with 13% (or just over a third of the third) strongly supporting the ETS.
The poll appears to contain a very serious bias in the information provided to people as part of the poll. It lists the benefits of the ETS and costs of the ETS, but nowhere is there any information about the consequences of climate change.
The information raises fears about higher prices and lost jobs without making any effort to explain why climate change is a bad thing worth some sacrifice to avoid. People thus see the costs of the ETS clearly enough without having any balancing information about what might happen if we do nothing.
Page 28 is of particular interest as the relationship between those who know what the ETS is and what it does is 1 for 1 with those who strongly support it - at 13%. If you know what it is, you strongly support it.
People who know less about the ETS are less inclined to strongly support it and those who know little or nothing are least likely to support it.
Read the report yourself. It beats the pants off reading about the report in the media, from what I have seen so far.
It looks like most voters will be making their voting decisions based on the issues outlined in the poll. What is also obvious from the poll is that they are not, and likely will not be, informed decisions.
...and what about that close race? Fascinating.
Smearing public servants is not integrity
1 hour ago
And remember also, polls are a reflection only of the opinions of those who decide they'll participate. In other words, they're self selecting, and their samples are not representative (even when sampled for age, sex, ethnicity etc)
ReplyDeleteGeorge darroch: This poll was not an open self-selecting poll - like Stuff - as far as I know.
ReplyDeleteIt was like the usual polls where there the pollster randomly selects a pool of people, gains their co-operation, asks the questions, identifies what segments each person being polled falls into, than excludes any "excess" responses in each segment.
To the extent any pollster has to gain the co-operation of those being polled they are all self-selecting.