"Peaking too early" is a term often used to describe someone who had the early running, the election was "theirs to lose".
But as the campaign wears on their ratings fall and someone else gets the nod from voters. Observers looking on ask "What happened". Don Brash and National in 2005 come to mind.
Having seen this happen more than a few times over the years, it becomes fairly obvious what is going on. A candidate or party who at first look seemed great can, on closer scrutiny, not be so great. They may even be terrible. Maybe their personality is just wrong. Or maybe the policies they advance aren't supported even if the person or party concerned has considerable appeal. Whatever - the public found out enough about the person or party to decide they weren't worth supporting after all, despite having strong support early on.
The National Party is well aware of the risk of "peaking too early". This is probably why they have kept virtually all their detailed policy well away from voters.
Reading between the lines and listening to statements about their overall approach, they appear to have essentially the same policy "values" today that a majority voters have been rejecting over and over since 1987. They must be very concerned about voters finding out what they are really about and "peaking too early".
The sudden shift in the polls over the past 2 weeks suggests more people are paying attention and adjusting their voting intentions accordingly. Even the hints of their actual policy so far released have been enough to wake up more voters as to what they are really about: winding back public services and pouring tax money into the pockets of the private sector.......um.....their mates.
Sunday's One News / Colmar-Brunton poll lines up with last week's Fairfax poll and the July 7th TNS Conversa poll. All show a lift for the Labour Party of about 5%. Then we can factor in the roughly 6% advantage the first two polls typically give the National Party.
Should we see another similar lift between here and the election, this will be a horse race.
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