As Iran conducts its second day of missile tests, the BBC reports Israel is ready to act over Iran "if it feels threatened".
As in past conflicts, Israel has effectively provoked the current tensions by steadily ratcheting up the rhetoric until the target responds in a provocative way. Israel then uses this response as evidence of the threat.
I've had the same thing happen to me in the playground at school when someone wanted to pick a fight. They would harrass and needle until you finally had a go at them....only to find them then playing the victim and you end up looking like the bully. No one is interested in your protestations to the contrary.....especially the influential friends of the harrasser.
We've been seeing the same thing with respect to Israel and Iran for some years now (roughly since Bush got into the White House) and Iran has typically responded in a reasonably measured way to the ongoing threats from the US and Israel to unilaterally nuke Iran.
Why Iran now appears to have taken the bait is worth speculating on. Is it simply bad judgement based on hubris? Or is Iran bluffing? Or is Iran taking a "Make my day...." stance with respect to the usual Israeli threats of attack for some other purpose?
Certainly by keeping tensions high, Israel, the US and Iran are all doing their best to keep the price of oil high, which keeps the economic pressure on everyone who uses oil. That ties in with Iranian President Ahmedinejad's view that the US is "on the threshold of bankruptcy — from political to economic".
From the perspective of the Bush Administration and the Kadima-lead conservative government in Israel, a tensions, or perhaps even conflict, with Iran may help John McCain take the White House or, failing that, make it all but impossible for a more moderate Barak Obama to adopt a more conciliatory stance with respect to Iran. The current governments in Israel and the US do not want this situation to be resolved. That is made evident by their fresh threats each time things calm down.
The best way to undertstand why these tensions have arisen is too look at who gains by them: the groups currently in power in the US and Israel. Their respective political constituencies are held together by fear as much as any other thing. So fear it is.
There is no benefit for Iran in any of this.
It's worth remembering we have not yet seen any evidence that Iran is actually working on nuclear weapons. The attempts to create panic about Iran appear to be designed to stop anyone from bothering to ask for such proof.
Daily review 23/07/2025
38 minutes ago
We should be careful what we assume about Iran, or any country.
ReplyDeletePuor bien savoir les choses, il en faut savoir le detail, et comme il est presque infini, nos connaissances sont toujours superficielles et imparfaites.
Unfortunately, what we do know is that the Bush administration cannot be trusted to do what it says. Iraq taught us that lesson. Many experts have long been predicting that Bush would invade Iran before he leaves office. But of course, the Bush administration would never admit to such a thing.
“On ne donne rien si liberalement que ses conseils.”
But it is the man who follows his own counsel, he’s the one that should lead.
What Does Iran Want?
ReplyDeleteI think more than anything to be able to defend their country. Iran wants the same things as Israel, security. Who can they trust?
They remember 1979; Arabic nations who supported Iraq against Iran. The integrated financial, technical, and armaments that were provided by many Arab countries to support Arabic Iraq against non-Arab Iranians was responsible for death of about 500,000 Iranians and injury of several millions.
They remember our financial and technical support of Sadam Hossein to use chemical bombs against Iranians.
Iranians remember summer of 1953.
President George Bush often states that Iran is threatening the interests of the Unites States in Persian Gulf! What are the interests of England and the United States in Persian Gulf, the Persian front door to Iran?
A primer for discussion of these issues must start with review of British and the United States policies relative to the Persian Gulf region. Stephen Kinzer, a veteran New York Times correspondent, in his book “All the Shah’s Men, an American coup and the roots of Middle East Terror”, published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2003, brilliantly reconstructs the events leading to the present dilemma of the United States in the Middle East. The events described in this marvelous book are not fiction; the events actually happened during the summer of 1953 in Tehran, Iran.
The United States Central Intelligence Agency operation Ajax staged coup d’état in 1953 against democratically elected Prime Minister Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh. Democracy was substituted with the despotic regime of Mohammad Reza Shah. The dawn of democracy in Iran, started in late 1880, flickered by democratically elected Mossadegh, was extinguished. This was the beginning of Iranian servitude once more to the interests of England and the United States. During his last years, Shah did not trust Iranian people; his inner palace was guarded by Israel commandos. Since 1979, the United States has been punishing Iranian people for ousting the immature, weak, despotic Mohammad Reza Shah. This punishment, Iranian assert, included Iraq invasion of Iran instigated by President Regan. During this war, the United States and her satellite nations helped materially and logistically Iraqi military forces to invade Iran and use chemical and biological weapons on Iranian population.
Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh
In the preface of his book, Kinzer recalls his conversation with an Iranian lady about Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh. He asked her: “What do you remember…about the coup against him?” She responded:
“Why did you Americans do that terrible thing? We always loved America. To us, America was the great country, the perfect country, the country that helped us while other countries were exploiting us. But after that moment, no one in Iran ever trusted the United States again…”
This un-American act was instigated by Winston Churchill-Anthony Eden of England and two American brothers John Foster Dulles (US Secretary of State) and Allen Dulles (Director of Central Intelligence Agency). The primary reason for this regime change was to subordinate Iranian people and exploit the Iranian natural resources.
Harry Truman once said: "There is nothing new in the world except the histories you don not know.” Have we learned from our past mistakes committed during 1953 not to repeat it once more? This time the price would be much larger for both the Iranian and our American societies! We must stop George Bush with his neocolonialism.
If you were the President of Iran, what would you do for your country?
Please read Persian Paradox [http://www.geocities.com/stmtraveler/PersianPardox.htm].