Probably not. But the profound stupidity of US President Bush and Vice-President Cheney means we can't rule it out entirely. All the tell-tale signs of an escalating campaign to justify such an attack are there and growing. Based on what we are seeing now, an attack after the end of July could be plausible. Here's why:
The United States and Israel have been steadily escalating the rhetoric against Iran. The program being followed is eerily similar to the one used prior to the invasion of Iraq.
1. Talk for years, over and over, about the "certainty" of Iranian nukes. Try to create an environment where your unsubstantiated claims are taken as being givens by voters and the media.
2. Move to the next phase, involving the IAEA and the international community. Make lots of claims no person can prove or disprove - including and especially the Iranians. As with Saddam's "WMD" the Iranians can no more prove they DON'T have any than Saddam could. It's like proving the tooth fairy doesn't exist.
3. Accelerate the rate of accusations and bury your intended victim in a blizzard of "evidence" and accusations they can't refute fast enough. No one is really paying close attention anyway - especially the media. They can be relied upon to simply report uncritically whatever your latest claim is. It's what they did in Iraq and this will be no different.
4. Quietly line up your military ducks. Sign and agreement with Iraq allowing you to operate military bass there. Call it an "alliance", so there is no Congressional oversight. but don't say what you're allied against. With any luck, you can get this agreement signed without anyone eve knowing. If they do find out, the Iraqi government can say it is an agreement "regulating" your occupation of their country after the UN agreement expires. Call the bases "Iraqi bases" because there will be a couple of tents housing Iraqi soldiers off in one corner. Bush's law applies. No one else's. US law can be invoked if Bush approves. He rarely does: eg. Guantanamo.
5. Attack Iran. Hang your Iraqi "allies" out to dry when you and / or Israel launch your air attacks from those "Iraqi" bases against Iranian sites. The Iraqi's are either with you or against you. You can depose them and replace them with some willing Iraqi general anyway. Job done.
Side benefits: Sure as hell got that darned Obama guy out of the news!
This summary and overview of the US-Iraq "agreement" by Al-Jazeera sums up the current state of play as of today well, though the role of Israel in any plan to bomb Iran is not addressed. If you haven't watched any of it, Al Jazeera is providing consistently balanced reports on what it does cover and many reports on things that the Western media do not cover at all. It is becoming a valuable news source in its own right.
US-Iran security deal - 08 June 08 - Part 1
US-Iran security deal - 08 June 08 - Part 2
Daily review 15/09/2025
4 hours ago
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