"It's very much the US currency at play. The market is reassessing the dollar and has probably taken the view that the dollar hasn't bottomed out and may fall further," said Mark Pervan, a senior commodities analyst at ANZ Bank.
Old news, perhaps, but the comments here take the idea from the realms of speculation and place it squarely in the realm of investors agreeing to use another value (a 40 US gallon barrel of oil) instead of the value of a currency. That seems to me like a half-way house to jumping to some other currency with oil as the foundation for any of a series of such moves.
OPEC is sticking to the line that oil prices are all about speculation as there is more than enough oil to meet demand.
Who to believe? The voices and influence of investors are much more easily heard via the media than the single voice of OPEC, so one can't allow "volume" or "quantity" of opinion to aid in making the call. OPEC hasn't been a reliable source, being effectively unaccountable to anyone and with little in the way of transparency. Unfortunately, I don't know of any voices that are trustworthy. Not that they don't exist. I just don't know who they are.
More investigation required. With the Emissions Trading Scheme effectively on hold for several years, the geo-political drama around energy is more immediately gripping - both my interest and my wallet.
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