Thursday, May 29, 2008

Roy Morgan poll: National 49 : Labour 35

Angus Reid reports a Roy Morgan poll today that narrows the spread between National and Labour to 14 points.

National 49
Labour 35
Greens 7.5
NZ First 4
Maori 2.5
ACT 1
United Fut 0.5

(At time of writing, the graphic has the Maori Party and NZ First Party results reversed. I've sent a note notifying them.)

This poll shows the gap between National and Labour is effectively 7 per cent as it would take thatnumber moving from National to labour to put them neck and neck.

Also interesting is that the Labour, Green and NZ First share of the votes add up to 46.5% with the Maori Party taking the total to 49%. If that were to be the case on the election day, the fate of Jim Anderton, Peter Dunne and Rodney Hide could determine the outcome. If either of the latter two were to lose their seat, we could still have a Labour-lead government. Jim Anderton and Winston Peters do not appear to have had any great difficulties working together over the past 2 and a half years.

This is just one poll, but it is noteworthy as not being one of those (Colmar Brunton, for example) usually weighted in favour of National as compared to other polls.

If the gap between National supporting and Labour supporting parties were to narrow any further, a Labour lead government could be looking at a fourth term.

This poll is almost identical to a Roy Morgan poll from November 2007.

3 comments:

  1. If you read the text, that's actually a report on a Roy Morgan poll.

    And yes, having no friends means its not as easy as it looks for National. They admit themselves that they need 48% of the vote to form a government. While they're achieving that now, things might not be so easy when the actual election campaign begins, and people start thinking about whether they really want a majority government or not.

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  2. I'd make two points regarding your assessment.

    1. At 4% NZ First would not be in Parliament.

    2. National are not putting up serious challenges in either Ohariu or Epsom.

    Michael S

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  3. I/S: Thanks. Fixed.

    Michael: Both good points. I'm betting Peters will pull it off again and go north of 5%. I may be wrong.

    Peter Dunne used to be my MP in Ohariu. I voted for Bob Jones in '84 (Dunne beat him) and Dunne in 1987. He's held it for 24 years as it has crept north from the old Karori electorate he originally won from Hugh Templeton. I'd be getting tired of him as my MP.....but he will probably win. Hide winning Epsom? I have no idea. NO idea.

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